AEO ROI calculator
Pick a starting point or enter your own figures. The example values are placeholders to show how the math works. They are not benchmarks, so replace them with your real numbers.
- New customers a month
- 3.5
- Profit from those customers
- $9,450
- Return on the retainer
- 170%
- Cost per customer
- $1,000
- Break-even
- 1.3 customers
- Leads needed to break even
- 4 leads
- First-year net, with a 3-month ramp
- $43,050
The first-year figure assumes no return in months one to three and the monthly figure above from month four on. Nothing here is a forecast of your results.
How does the calculator work?
It uses four lines of arithmetic. You can check every one by hand.
- Customers a month = leads from AI answers × close rate.
- Profit from those customers = customers × average customer value × gross margin.
- Net profit = that profit − monthly AEO cost. Return is net profit divided by cost.
- Break-even customers = monthly AEO cost ÷ profit per customer.
The first-year figure counts twelve months of cost and nine months of profit. AEO usually takes about 90 days to settle, so the first three months are treated as cost with nothing coming back. That makes the result more conservative than a simple monthly figure multiplied by twelve.
How many customers does AEO need to bring in to break even?
This table shows the number of new customers a month needed to cover the retainer, at different customer values. It uses revenue, so the real number is higher once you account for margin.
| Monthly retainer | $500 per customer | $1,500 per customer | $5,000 per customer | $10,000 per customer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,000 a month | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| $3,500 a month | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| $5,000 a month | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| $7,500 a month | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
The pattern is the whole argument for or against AEO in one view. A business with a $10,000 customer needs one a month at almost any retainer. A business with a $500 customer needs between four and fifteen, and should think hard before signing. For what retainers actually cost, see AEO pricing.
How do you find your real inputs?
- Leads from AI answers. This is the hardest one. Add "How did you hear about us?" to your intake form and include AI assistants as an option. In your website analytics, look for visits referred by chatgpt.com and perplexity.ai. ChatGPT adds utm_source=chatgpt.com to many of the links it sends. If you have no data yet, enter a low number and see whether the math still works.
- Close rate. Use the rate you see from referrals, not from cold ads. People who arrive after an AI recommended you by name tend to behave more like referrals, but measure it instead of assuming it.
- Average customer value. Use what a customer is worth in the first year. If customers return, your real figure is higher, and you can raise it once you trust the rest.
- Gross margin. A law firm on contingency, a surgeon and a plumber have very different margins. Use your own.
- Monthly cost. Include the retainer, any tracking tool billed separately, and a share of any setup fee.
What can the calculator not tell you?
It cannot tell you how many leads AEO will produce. Nobody can, and an agency that puts a number on it before testing is guessing. The calculator answers a narrower question: how many leads would it need to produce to be worth the money?
That is still the right question to ask first. If break-even is two customers a month and your category is one where people ask AI who to hire, the bet is reasonable. If break-even is thirty, it is not, whatever the pitch says. A baseline test tells you which situation you are in before you spend anything.
To compare the cost side, see AEO vs SEO cost. For your industry, see pricing for law firms and medical practices.
AEO ROI FAQ
What is a good ROI for AEO?
How do I know how many customers came from AI?
How long before AEO pays back?
Should I use revenue or profit in the calculator?
More on AEO pricing
- AEO pricing: What AEO costs across the market, from 15 published prices.
- Law firm AEO pricing: Costs by firm type and the math per signed case.
- Medical AEO pricing: Costs for practices, compliance review and budget reality.
- AEO vs SEO cost: The two services priced side by side.